一周热榜精选:失业升通胀降重塑美联储前景?日本加息终于落地!
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-12-19 15:01

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a decline followed by a rebound, initially dropping below the 98 mark due to mixed non-farm data and fluctuating inflation expectations, but later recovered as US Treasury yields stabilized [1] - Gold prices maintained a high volatility pattern, attempting to breach the $4,350 to $4,370 range but failing to hold, indicating profit-taking at high levels [1] - Silver outperformed gold, reaching historical highs and showing a nearly 130% increase this year, although volatility increased significantly at these levels [1] - International oil prices continued a downward trend, influenced by concerns over oversupply and potential peace agreements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with prices hitting a four-year low before a slight rebound [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed significant divergence and increased volatility, initially pressured by technology stocks but rebounding mid-week due to individual stock performance and improved risk appetite [2] - Despite a collective rise in major indices on Thursday due to favorable inflation data, the overall trend for the week remained one of consolidation with structural market characteristics evident [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will soar to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while also expressing a bearish outlook on oil prices and favoring copper as the preferred industrial metal [5] - ANZ Bank suggests that in a bullish scenario, gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered anticipates new highs for gold prices in the same year [5] - Morgan Stanley expects a slowdown in gold price increases next year, with silver lagging behind [5] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent US economic data revealed a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [6] - The November CPI data was below expectations, with overall CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [6] - Federal Reserve officials displayed differing views on monetary policy, with some advocating for aggressive rate cuts while others suggested a more cautious approach [7] International Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first increase in 11 months and the highest level in 30 years, indicating a shift towards tightening monetary policy [9] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%, the lowest in nearly three years, amidst internal policy disagreements [11][12] - The European Central Bank maintained its deposit rate at 2%, while raising inflation and economic growth forecasts for the coming years [12] Corporate Developments - Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected a hostile takeover bid from Paramount, citing concerns over the financing structure and risks associated with the proposal, while supporting a merger agreement with Netflix [24]