年内涨幅翻倍 白银投资成“香饽饽”

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged over 120% in 2025, driven by supply-demand imbalances, industrial demand, and investment inflows, with expectations for continued upward movement in 2026 despite short-term volatility risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-December 2025, silver prices reached approximately $64.74 per ounce, up from about $30.1 per ounce at the beginning of the year [1]. - On December 17, silver futures in Shanghai hit a record high of 15,477 yuan per kilogram, while COMEX silver peaked at $65.909 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 125%, significantly outperforming gold [2]. - Silver prices have shown a consistent upward trend, breaking through key psychological levels, including $40, $50, and $60 per ounce within a few months [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, with industrial demand expected to account for 58.5% of total demand in 2024 [3][5]. - Industrial silver demand is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2019 to 2024, contributing to 98% of the total increase in silver demand during this period [5]. - Major silver-producing countries have seen reduced output, while global inventories are at a ten-year low, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is a key driver of silver's price surge, as lower interest rates enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4]. - A decline in the U.S. dollar index is also expected to support silver prices, with historical data indicating that a 1% drop in the dollar typically results in a 1.5% to 2% increase in silver prices [4]. - The increasing industrial applications of silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector and electric vehicles, are reshaping traditional demand structures [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise, with major investment banks adjusting their price targets upward, with UBS forecasting a target price of $58 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [6]. - The ongoing demand from sectors such as renewable energy and electronics is expected to maintain upward pressure on prices, despite potential short-term corrections [6][7]. - Institutions have raised concerns about the volatility in the silver market, suggesting that large trades can significantly impact prices, necessitating cautious risk management from investors [7][8].