美债迎来坏消息，中国出售万亿美债，持有规模降至17年以来最低

Core Viewpoint - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have dropped to $688.7 billion as of October, marking a significant decline and the lowest level since October 2008, reflecting a broader trend of global divergence among major bondholders [1][3][5] Group 1: China's Treasury Bond Holdings - In October 2025, China reduced its US Treasury bond holdings by $11.8 billion, falling below the psychological threshold of $700 billion [3] - Since April 2022, China's Treasury bond holdings have been on a downward trajectory, with a cumulative reduction of over $280 billion from 2022 to 2024 [3][5] - The reduction in holdings is contrasted by Japan's increase to $1.2 trillion, indicating a divergence in strategies among major bondholders [3][5] Group 2: Global Bondholder Trends - Overall foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $9.243 trillion, marking a second consecutive month of decline, influenced by the US government shutdown [5] - Japan has been the largest buyer of US Treasury bonds, increasing its holdings for ten consecutive months, while Canada has significantly reduced its holdings [3][5] - The collective reduction among various countries highlights a growing trust crisis in the US dollar's dominance [1][5] Group 3: China's Gold Reserves and Strategy - China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces by the end of October 2025, reflecting a continuous increase over 13 months, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [5][7] - The increase in gold holdings is seen as a hedge against the risks associated with US dollar assets, especially following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves [5][7] - The current gold holdings represent only 7.3% of China's official reserves, suggesting room for further increases in gold investments [7] Group 4: US Debt and Economic Context - The total US federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [9][15] - The US government is projected to face a budget deficit exceeding $2 trillion in 2025, necessitating reliance on foreign buyers for debt issuance [11][15] - The inefficiency of the US debt-driven economic model is highlighted, with each additional dollar of debt only generating $0.70 in economic growth [15] Group 5: Implications for Currency and International Relations - The decline in confidence in the US dollar is prompting a shift towards the internationalization of the renminbi, with increased cross-border transactions and currency swap agreements [11][13] - The global central banks' increasing gold purchases signal a potential shift away from dollar reliance, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue increasing gold reserves [13] - The ongoing trends suggest a potential weakening of the dollar's dominance in global finance, creating opportunities for alternative currencies [13]