Palo Alto (PANW) Up 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has shown a slight increase in share price but has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, raising questions about future performance leading up to the next earnings report [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 fiscal 2026, PANW reported non-GAAP earnings of 93 cents per share, exceeding estimates by 4.5% and reflecting a 19.2% year-over-year increase [2] - Revenues for the same quarter reached $2.47 billion, surpassing estimates by 0.52% and up from $2.14 billion year-over-year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Product revenues increased by 22.6% year-over-year to $434 million, making up 17.5% of total revenues [3] - Subscription and Support revenues, which accounted for 82.5% of total revenues, grew 14.3% year-over-year to $2.04 billion, driven by SASE, Software Firewalls, and XSIAM offerings [3] Key Metrics - Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) stood at $15.5 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year [4] - Next-Generation Security annualized recurring revenues reached $5.85 billion, representing a 29% year-over-year growth [4] - Non-GAAP gross profit was $1.90 billion, with a gross margin of 76.9%, up 110 basis points sequentially [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - As of October 31, 2025, PANW had $3.07 billion in cash and cash equivalents, an increase from $2.27 billion as of July 31, 2025 [5] - The company generated $1.77 billion in operating cash flow and reported non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow of $1.71 billion, reflecting a 69.2% adjusted free cash flow margin [5] Fiscal Guidance - For fiscal 2026, PANW expects revenues between $10.50 billion and $10.54 billion, revised from a previous target of $10.48-$10.53 billion [6] - Remaining Performance Obligations are projected between $18.6 billion and $18.7 billion, with Next-Gen Security ARR forecasted between $7.00 billion and $7.10 billion, implying 26-27% annual growth [6] Q2 Projections - For Q2 fiscal 2026, revenues are projected between $2.57 billion and $2.59 billion, indicating 14-15% year-over-year growth [8] - RPO is expected in the range of $15.75 billion to $15.85 billion, and Next-Gen Security ARR is forecasted between $6.11 billion and $6.14 billion, suggesting 28% growth [8] - Non-GAAP earnings per share are projected between 93 to 95 cents, indicating 15-17% year-over-year growth [8] Market Position and Estimates - Estimates for PANW have been trending upward, although the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [12] - The company has a strong Growth Score of A but lags in Momentum with a D, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [11]