Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. inflation data has heightened market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to significant price movements in precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum, which are nearing historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Prices - Spot gold prices are hovering around $4,325 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.6%, aiming for a second consecutive week of gains, having reached a historical high of $4,381 per ounce in October [1]. - Silver prices are reported at $64.99 per ounce, close to the historical peak of $66.89 per ounce set earlier in the week [1]. - Platinum prices have risen by 1%, approaching a 17-year peak, while palladium has also seen an increase [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen its year-on-year growth rate drop to the lowest level since early 2021, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The recent government shutdown has diminished the reference value of the latest inflation report, creating uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy [4]. - Traders currently estimate a 25% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January, with calls from President Trump for significant rate reductions next year [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, supported by U.S. military deployments and sanctions against oil tankers [4]. - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant bullish trend, with both gold and silver on track for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that declining U.S. interest rates are prompting ETF investors to compete with central banks for limited gold supplies, predicting continued upward pressure on gold prices due to structural high demand from central banks and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts [5]. - Platinum prices have doubled year-to-date, surpassing $1,980 per ounce, with signs of tightening supply in the London platinum market as banks shift inventories to the U.S. to avoid tariff risks [5]. - The launch of platinum futures trading in Guangzhou has led to a rebound in demand from the Chinese market, resulting in strong export performance of platinum to China this year [5].
美国通胀降温助推降息预期 金银铂持续高位徘徊
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 02:37