Core Viewpoint - The company is transitioning to a new business model that combines non-performing asset management and long-term equity investments, with the latter becoming a new stabilizing force for performance [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance Projections - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.4%, 11.0%, and 8.6% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 10.33 billion, 11.46 billion, and 12.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.13, 0.14, and 0.16 yuan, and BVPS of 0.83, 0.98, and 1.13 yuan [1]. - A valuation of 2x PB for 2025E is assigned to the company, resulting in a target price of 1.16 HKD, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [1]. Group 2: Non-Performing Asset Management - The company has been adjusting its structure since 2022, focusing on both the disposal of existing assets and maintaining acquisition pace while accelerating impairment provisions [2]. - New non-performing debt assets are projected to be 48.3 billion, 47.3 billion, and 49.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, showing a year-on-year decrease of 44.38%, 2.20%, and an increase of 3.80% respectively; the balance of non-performing debts is expected to decline to 444.9 billion, 398.5 billion, and 342.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9.36%, -10.43%, and -13.96% [2]. - Due to accelerated impairment, the income from non-performing asset disposals is forecasted to drop to 28.6 billion, 15.9 billion, and 3.8 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.03%, 44.59%, and 76.12% [2]. Group 3: Long-Term Equity Investment - Long-term equity investments are positioned as a new stabilizing force to counteract industry cycles, providing steady returns and long-term value [2]. - The company prefers investments in blue-chip state-owned enterprises and industry leaders that offer stable cash flows, strong dividend capabilities, mature governance, and potential synergies with its ecosystem [2].
中信金融资产(2799.HK)首次覆盖报告：拨云见日 双轮启航