高盛：美股年底最后两周或迎反弹，定调2026年为“选股大年”，机会不在AI在周期

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts a shift in investment opportunities from AI giants to cyclical sectors as the U.S. economy is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [1][2] - The report indicates that stock correlations in the U.S. market will drop to historical lows in 2026, suggesting a market driven by stock-picking strategies [1][4] Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 index's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow by 12% next year, driven by easing tariff pressures and overall economic acceleration [2] - Cyclical sectors, including industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary, are expected to lead in EPS growth in 2026, with significant rebounds anticipated [3] Sector Performance - Real estate sector EPS growth is forecasted to rise from 5% this year to 15% next year, while consumer discretionary is expected to increase from 3% to 7% [3] - Industrial companies are projected to see EPS growth accelerate from 4% to 15%, contrasting with a slowdown in technology sector EPS growth from 26% in 2025 to 24% in 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The expected low correlation of 23% among S&P 500 constituents in 2026 indicates a highly differentiated market, where traditional index-buying strategies may underperform [4] - The divergence in stock performance suggests that precise stock selection will be crucial for profitability [4] Seasonal Trends - Historical data indicates that the last two weeks of December typically present a favorable seasonal window for stock performance, with an average return of 1.77% during this period [5][6] - Despite recent declines in the S&P 500 index, there is potential for upward movement as the market enters this historically positive timeframe [5][6]