海南封关后，最不开心的人跳出来了！

Core Insights - The recent closure of Hainan Island for trade has significantly impacted Singapore's transshipment trade, which is a critical part of its economy [2][3] - Hainan's zero-tariff policy now covers over 6,600 items, accounting for 74% of its trade, while Singapore is increasing infrastructure fees, making its logistics less competitive [3] - The opening of the China-Laos railway has improved logistics efficiency, allowing for faster and cheaper transport from Laos to China via Hainan, further diminishing Singapore's appeal as a transshipment hub [3] Trade Dynamics - Singapore's transshipment trade volume decreased by 4.2% in the first 11 months of 2025, while Hainan's Yangpu Port saw a 38% increase in container throughput, reaching 28% of Singapore's volume [3] - The shift in trade dynamics is evident as companies are relocating operations from Singapore to Hainan, with significant cost savings reported [3] - Hainan's "front port and back factory" model allows for value-added processing that is not available in Singapore's traditional transshipment model, enhancing its competitive edge [3] Economic Implications - Singapore's economy, heavily reliant on transshipment trade, faces challenges as Hainan's market access and proximity to a large domestic market provide a strategic advantage [3] - The shift in pricing power for commodities like rubber and iron ore from Singapore to Hainan indicates a broader regional economic realignment [3] - The need for Singapore to adapt to new trade rules and economic realities is emphasized, as its current model may no longer be sustainable in the face of Hainan's growth [3]