Economic Overview - "Anti-involution" has become a significant factor affecting economic operations, with fluctuations in economic data for November 2025 reflecting adjustments in industry prices and profit patterns during efforts to curb inefficient competition and promote structural optimization [2] - The current uneven pace of domestic demand recovery highlights the need for policies to focus on investment and consumption to stabilize growth [2] CPI Analysis - The CPI for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [6] - Food prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, with core CPI remaining stable at 1.2% [6] - The month-on-month core CPI saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating a mixed trend in consumer prices [6] PPI Analysis - The PPI for November 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [8] - The decrease in production materials and living materials prices reflects the impact of high base effects from the previous year [8] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month, indicating a balance in price movements across various sectors [8] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 was reported at 49.2%, showing a marginal improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - Key drivers of this improvement include increases in production and new orders, alongside better external demand conditions [12] - The raw material purchase price index has been in an expansion zone for five consecutive months, suggesting a potential for improved profitability for manufacturing firms [12] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment for January to November 2025 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [15] - The central economic work conference has proposed measures to increase central budget investments and optimize project management to reverse the declining trend in infrastructure investment [15] Credit Market - New RMB loans in November 2025 totaled 390 billion, a decrease from 220 billion in the previous month [19] - Short-term loans for residents fell significantly, reflecting weakened consumer confidence and employment expectations [19] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a notable decline in transaction volumes across major cities [19] M2 and Monetary Policy - The M2 growth rate for November 2025 was 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month, indicating a tightening monetary environment [23] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 suggests a shift in deposit behaviors, with businesses moving funds from demand deposits to time deposits [23]
经观月度观察|“反内卷”下出现新信号 政策加力稳投资促消费
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-20 01:27