11月银行结售汇顺差157亿美元，已连续7个月保持顺差

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is showing resilience, with banks maintaining a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales for seven consecutive months, indicating stable cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange market expectations [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB, continuing to maintain a surplus, although the difference has narrowed [1]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, reflecting a consistent surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [2]. - The surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales has been observed for seven consecutive months since May 2025 [4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Income and Payments - In November 2025, the total cross-border income and payments for non-bank sectors amounted to 1.3 trillion USD, with a month-on-month increase of 8%, resulting in a surplus of 17.8 billion USD [4]. - In Shenzhen, banks settled 20.6 billion USD and sold 14.9 billion USD in November, achieving a surplus of 5.7 billion USD [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Currency Trends - The US dollar index weakened in November, with a decline of 0.29%, while the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar, particularly in late November [5][6]. - The appreciation of the yuan and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales are mutually reinforcing, creating a positive feedback loop [7]. Group 4: Future Trends - Experts suggest that as the year-end approaches, there will be an increase in foreign exchange settlement due to corporate financial settlements and profit distributions, potentially driving up the scale of bank foreign exchange settlements [8]. - The impact of seasonal factors, corporate exchange rate management, and policy adjustments may lead to significant monthly variations in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales data, complicating the relationship with cross-border capital flows and yuan exchange rate changes [8].