摩根大通：2026年市场展望报告-机遇与挑战并存

Group 1: Core Themes - The 2026 global market will experience a transformative period characterized by three core themes: the dominance of artificial intelligence, global market differentiation, and structural changes in inflation, creating an investment environment filled with both opportunities and challenges [1][2][3] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - The AI revolution is deepening, becoming the core driver of the economy and markets, with generative AI capabilities improving and applications expanding, leading to significant increases in investment [1][2] - Major US tech companies are projected to increase their annual capital expenditures from $150 billion in 2023 to over $500 billion by 2026, a threefold increase [32] - AI-related spending is expected to contribute more to GDP growth than consumer spending by 2025, with OpenAI planning to invest over $1 trillion in capital expenditures in the coming years [32][33] Group 3: Global Market Differentiation - The trend of global market differentiation is reshaping trade, energy, and monetary structures, with a shift from cost minimization to supply chain security and regional trade alliances [2][10] - South America is emerging as a key player in global resource competition due to its rich mineral and energy resources, attracting investment attention [2][10] Group 4: Inflation Dynamics - Inflation is undergoing a structural transformation, becoming a significant variable affecting wealth planning, with current levels higher and more volatile than pre-pandemic [2][11] - The housing market is experiencing a supply shortage, impacting living costs and asset values, while fixed income markets are regaining momentum with rising bond yields [2][11][16] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The macro environment in 2026 offers growth opportunities for multi-asset investments, particularly in AI, regional trade restructuring, energy transition, and inflation-hedged assets [3][11] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a resilient and flexible perspective in their investment and wealth planning to adapt to the new global economic paradigm [3][11]