Qian Zhan Wang·2025-12-20 02:10Industry Overview - The lithium-ion battery industry is defined as the manufacturing sector engaged in the production of lithium batteries, primarily focusing on lithium-ion batteries, which are the most commonly used type in the market [1][3] - Lithium batteries are categorized into two types: those using metallic lithium as the anode and lithium-ion polymer batteries, which utilize polymer electrolytes [1][3] Industry Chain Analysis - The lithium battery industry chain consists of upstream suppliers of core materials (anodes, cathodes, electrolytes, separators), midstream manufacturers, and downstream applications and recycling [4][7] Industry Development History - The lithium battery industry in China has evolved through four stages: core technology accumulation, production scale expansion, application field expansion, and high-quality development [11] - By 2024, China's lithium battery shipments are expected to account for over 80% of the global market share, solidifying its position as a leading producer [11] Policy Background - National policies support the stable development of the lithium battery industry through funding, resource sharing, and regulatory simplifications [14][15] - Key policies include export controls on high-performance lithium-ion batteries and regulations on the recycling of used batteries [15][16] Current Industry Status - In 2024, China's lithium battery production is projected to exceed 940 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, and the total industry output value surpassing 1.4 trillion yuan [17] - The lithium battery shipment volume is expected to reach 1,175 GWh in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.62% [18] - The installed capacity of lithium batteries is anticipated to exceed 645 GWh in 2024, with a growth rate of 48% [19][22] - The average price of lithium batteries is forecasted to drop to $115 per kWh in 2024, marking a significant decline of 20% from 2023 [24] Product Structure - Phosphate iron lithium batteries have become the mainstream due to their cost advantages and safety features, accounting for 60% of lithium battery shipments in 2024 [25] Competitive Landscape - China is the largest lithium battery producer globally, with major companies like CATL, BYD, and others leading the market [29] - In 2024, the top 15 domestic power battery companies by installed capacity include CATL, BYD, and others, with CATL holding a market share of 42.7% [29] Future Development Prospects - The lithium battery market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of the electric vehicle market and the push for carbon neutrality [31] - The industry is predicted to maintain a growth rate of approximately 26% until 2030, with the market size potentially reaching 5,022 GWh [31] - Future trends indicate an increase in the market share of polymer lithium-ion batteries and advancements in solid-state battery technology [32]