专家马光远：中国的高房价，绝大部分是合理的！

Core Viewpoint - The economist Ma Guangyuan argues that most high housing prices in China are reasonable, with only a few cities experiencing excessively high prices that lead to issues in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Housing Price Dynamics - The price formation mechanism in China's real estate market has its internal logic, driven by rapid urbanization and significant population migration to first-tier and core second-tier cities, resulting in high housing demand and limited supply due to scarce land resources [3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen attract a large number of high-quality talents due to their superior educational, medical, and employment resources, which contributes to the rising housing prices reflecting the agglomeration effect of these resources [3] Group 2: Affordability Issues - The housing price-to-income ratio in many hot cities has exceeded international warning levels, making it nearly impossible for ordinary working-class families to afford a standard home, particularly in cities like Shenzhen, where the ratio has surpassed 40 [5] - This extreme housing price situation indicates a significant disconnect from residents' actual purchasing power, leading to market distortions [5] Group 3: Financial and Policy Implications - The intertwining of land finance and financial risks is a deeper issue in the housing market, with local governments heavily reliant on land sale revenues, which contributes to rising land prices and, consequently, housing prices [7] - The fluctuation of property prices as a key collateral directly impacts the stability of the financial system, posing systemic financial risks if housing prices were to drop significantly [7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Ma Guangyuan's metaphor of "sick cities" suggests the need for differentiated and precise regulatory strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, advocating for strict purchase and loan limits in cities with bubble risks while maintaining stable policies in cities with reasonable prices [9] - Recognizing real estate as not only an economic issue but also a significant livelihood concern, high housing prices contribute to social anxiety, affecting young people's decisions on marriage and family planning, as well as compressing other consumer spending due to mortgage burdens [11] Group 5: Perspective on Housing Market - Ma Guangyuan's views, while somewhat biased, offer a new perspective on China's housing market, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis rather than simplistic criticism or defense, as different cities have varying development stages, resource endowments, and population structures that influence housing price formation and rationality [13]