日本加息落地：暴跌没有，麻烦在后头

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 and signaling the end of a 30-year era of ultra-loose monetary policy [1][6][17] - The decision to raise interest rates was driven by persistent inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, remaining above the central bank's 2% target for 44 consecutive months [6][21] - The increase in interest rates has led to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 2.022%, the highest in 26 years, indicating a sell-off in the bond market [20][22] Group 2 - The market reaction to the interest rate hike was initially positive, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.03% on December 19, and further increasing by 1.69% by the following day, contrary to fears of a financial crisis [3][4] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar post-rate hike, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 157.394, raises questions about the effectiveness of the rate increase in attracting investment into yen-denominated assets [15][18] - Analysts express concerns about the long-term implications of rising interest rates on Japan's fiscal health, as the government debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 230%, and increased interest payments could strain the already fragile fiscal situation [21][26]