邓正红能源软实力：石油软实力博弈进入“规则重构+风险溢价”新阶段 油价走高

Core Insights - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as Ukraine's actions against Russian-linked oil tankers, which have led to a rise in international oil prices due to perceived risks in oil supply [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Actions Against Venezuela - President Trump has indicated the possibility of military action against Venezuela, emphasizing the U.S. strategy of seizing oil tankers and imposing sanctions on family members of Venezuelan President Maduro [1][4]. - The U.S. has shifted its narrative from combating drug trafficking to blocking oil exports from Venezuela, effectively rebranding its actions under the guise of anti-terrorism [4][6]. - The sanctions and military posturing have resulted in a significant decline in Venezuela's oil exports, leading to increased market speculation about supply disruptions and a structural price premium on oil [4][5]. Group 2: Ukraine's Strategic Actions - Ukraine has targeted oil tankers associated with Russian shadow fleets, employing drone strikes as a low-cost, high-impact method to disrupt energy supply lines without direct confrontation [3][4]. - This approach not only aims to diminish Russian energy revenues but also sends a clear message to global shipping companies about the risks of engaging with Russian oil transport [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Oil Prices - The rise in oil prices on December 19 reflects the market's response to geopolitical uncertainties, with traders willing to pay a premium for perceived risks associated with oil supply disruptions [2][5]. - The dynamics of oil pricing are influenced more by geopolitical actions than by actual changes in supply, indicating a shift in how market participants assess risk [5][6]. Group 4: Legal and Ethical Considerations - The legality of U.S. actions, such as the seizure of foreign oil tankers, raises questions about adherence to international law, particularly regarding maritime rights and the potential violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [5][6]. - The ethical implications of Ukraine's attacks on oil tankers, especially if they involve neutral vessels, could lead to accusations of war crimes, highlighting the complex moral landscape of modern warfare [5][6].