Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-20 07:31Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the theme "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances," emphasizing the ongoing challenges and structural adjustments within the Chinese economy, with expectations for a more balanced and higher-quality growth in the coming years [1][13]. Economic Analysis - The core issue facing the Chinese economy is insufficient effective demand, which is complex and cannot be resolved through simple aggregate policies. This requires a nuanced approach across consumption, asset prices, capital markets, and investment [3][5]. Consumption - Policies like trade-in subsidies have positively impacted durable goods consumption, but their effectiveness may diminish over time due to product update cycles. Future policies should shift from "investing in goods" to "investing in people," focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments that serve human needs [3][7]. - Income subsidies, such as those for childbirth and early childhood education, are seen as positive steps, with expectations for increased support during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][7]. Asset Prices and Capital Markets - Enhancing residents' property income is crucial, with the real estate market's recovery dependent on the speed of inventory clearance. This requires coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [3][8]. - The capital market has shown positive performance this year, but its sustainability as a "long bull" or "slow bull" market hinges on continuous improvement in corporate profits, which is tied to macroeconomic recovery [3][10]. Investment and Fiscal Policy - The current phase is characterized by "central leverage and local deleveraging," with local fiscal policy space expected to recover as some regions exit debt resolution lists. Long-term reforms are necessary to reduce reliance on land finance [4][12]. - The need for sustainable local fiscal reforms involves tax system changes, the division of responsibilities and rights, and optimizing industrial layouts [4][12]. Conclusion - The Chinese economy's imbalance is rooted in multiple intertwined issues, including consumption structure, income distribution, capital market functionality, and macro policy innovation. Addressing these challenges requires targeted strategies that balance short-term adjustments with long-term reforms [5][13].