铂期货创上市以来新高，摩根大通发声引关注，是估值修复还是趋势反转？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum futures prices is driven by a widening supply-demand gap and various supportive factors, with expectations of a continued shortage in the global platinum market through 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Platinum futures have seen significant price increases, with the main contract (PT2606) hitting a record high of 549.90 yuan per gram, marking a 5.32% increase on December 18, and a cumulative rise of 16.7% over three trading days [3]. - The price surge is attributed to the recovery of platinum's financial attributes, as the gold-platinum ratio has decreased from around 3.5 to approximately 2.5, indicating a correction in valuation [4]. - The trading activity in platinum futures has increased, with a weighted open interest of about 36,500 contracts and a daily increase of nearly 5,900 contracts, indicating heightened market engagement [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global platinum market is expected to face a structural shortage of approximately 19.3 tons annually from 2025 to 2029, which is about 8% of the average annual demand [8]. - Major platinum-producing countries, including South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe, account for 92.7% of global production, highlighting the concentrated nature of supply [7]. - The demand for platinum is bolstered by its applications in hydrogen energy and automotive catalysts, with the potential for increased industrial demand as green energy initiatives gain traction [5][9]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a relatively loose monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve expected to implement further interest rate cuts, which may enhance the attractiveness of precious metals like platinum [5][9]. - Recent employment data indicates a cooling job market, which may prevent inflation from rising sharply, further supporting a favorable environment for precious metals [5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict a bullish long-term outlook for platinum futures, with expectations of continued price recovery driven by both financial and industrial demand factors [9][10]. - The potential for increased investment in platinum is highlighted by its relative undervaluation compared to other precious metals, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity as market conditions stabilize [9].