中美博弈收场？现实比想象严峻：美国谈不上败北，是难以继续上桌

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the US-China competition, emphasizing that the focus has shifted from a binary win/lose perspective to a more nuanced understanding of industrial resilience and technological capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology and Manufacturing - The article highlights the importance of semiconductor manufacturing, noting that while export controls have raised barriers, China has made significant progress in mature processes and components, although it remains a net importer of integrated circuits [5][7]. - It emphasizes the role of advanced packaging technologies and domestic equipment in reducing systemic risks, despite existing gaps in top-tier equipment [7][11]. - The growth of China's electric vehicle exports and the integration of various components in the supply chain are presented as evidence of the country's manufacturing capabilities [9][12]. Group 2: Industrial and Military Integration - The article outlines how the civilian manufacturing sector is increasingly supporting military production, with rapid iteration cycles enabled by close collaboration among suppliers and manufacturers [11][12]. - It discusses the role of unmanned systems and electronic warfare in modern military strategies, highlighting the need for cost-effective solutions in the face of rapid technological advancements [13][14]. - The article points out that the US still holds advantages in certain advanced technologies, but its manufacturing sector faces challenges that could impact military readiness [13][14]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Future Outlook - The article presents a comparative analysis of defense spending as a percentage of GDP, indicating that China is building its military capabilities steadily rather than aggressively [14][15]. - It suggests that both nations are focusing on sustainable development, which may reduce confrontational actions and increase competitive strategies [16]. - The article concludes that the long-term competition will be characterized by coexistence, strategic adjustments, and deeper industrial restructuring, urging stakeholders to focus on manufacturing and engineering capabilities [16][17].