IEA国际能源署：煤炭2025-分析和预测至2030报告（英文版）

Core Insights - The IEA report indicates that the global coal market is undergoing a critical transformation, with overall demand expected to stabilize before gradually declining, characterized by regional disparities and competition from alternative energy sources [1][25][28]. Demand - Global coal demand is projected to reach 884.5 million tonnes in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with significant regional variations [1][53]. - India is experiencing a decline in coal power generation for the third time in fifty years due to increased hydropower output, while the US sees an 8% increase in coal consumption driven by higher natural gas prices and supportive policies [1][26]. - China's coal demand is expected to remain flat at 4,953 million tonnes, accounting for 56% of global consumption, while ASEAN countries are projected to see continued growth [1][54][55]. Supply - Global coal production is expected to maintain a high level of 911.1 million tonnes in 2025 before gradually declining to 864.1 million tonnes by 2030 [2][39]. - China and India remain the primary coal producers, with China's output expected to increase by 1% to 473 million tonnes in 2025, while India's production stabilizes at 108.9 million tonnes [2][41]. Trade - Global coal trade is anticipated to decrease by 5% to 146.8 million tonnes in 2025, driven by reduced imports from China and India due to sufficient domestic supply [2][43]. - The international coal trade is under pressure, particularly for thermal coal, while metallurgical coal exporters may have stronger prospects due to demand from India's steel industry [2][46]. Prices - After experiencing high volatility during the energy crisis, coal prices are expected to decline, with thermal coal prices in Europe and Asia projected to drop by 10% and 20% respectively in 2025 [2][47]. - Prices are approaching supply costs, leading to shrinking profits for coal mining companies [2][49]. Industry Dynamics - The role of coal is evolving, with a shift towards flexibility and industrial applications, while renewable energy expansion is gradually reducing coal's market share [3][57]. - The emergence of supportive policies for coal in the US has led to a temporary increase in demand, although a long-term decline is still expected [36][38].