Group 1 - The global financial market is transitioning from an event-driven state to a phase of reassessing existing pricing and consensus confirmation following significant macroeconomic events [1] - Market focus is shifting from "whether to take action" to "whether the policy stance remains restrained" regarding the Federal Reserve, with any statements on inflation resilience or policy patience likely to be magnified by the market [2] - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment continues to impact the market, with attention on whether the subsequent reactions, such as yen volatility and interest rate changes, will persist [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to exhibit a differentiated performance, with risk assets oscillating between emotional recovery and year-end caution, lacking new variables to drive sustained strength [3] - The foreign exchange market may enter a phase of range trading, with volatility stemming more from capital flows and position adjustments rather than a macro directional shift [3] - Overall, the market is in a rebalancing phase post-major events, with macro uncertainty persisting but the driving forces shifting towards expectation digestion and capital behavior [3]
【UNFX下周展望】流动性与预期再平衡 年末行情结构特征凸显
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-20 09:29