从冬至二师兄的表现，胡乱猜测一下春节猪价！结果大跌眼镜

Core Viewpoint - The winter solstice is approaching, but there is no indication of a price increase for pork, with a slight decline observed instead. This suggests that the expected rise in pork prices during the winter solstice may not materialize [2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - There is an oversupply of pigs, particularly larger ones, which is affecting market prices. The price difference between standard and fat pigs has not widened but has actually narrowed [2] - Farmers lack confidence and are reluctant to hold onto pigs, leading to a significant number of medium and large pigs being sold [4] - The slaughter volume of pigs from January to October reached 32.289 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, indicating continued growth in supply [9] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Overall pork consumption is on a downward trend, and while there may be an increase in stockpiling before the Spring Festival, this is unlikely to significantly impact prices due to the overwhelming supply [5] - The price of pork during the winter solstice has only increased by 5.3% and 1.3% for the years 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting weak consumer demand and tight budgets [6] - The timing of the Spring Festival, which falls later this year, may lead to increased stockpiling of pork, but the overall consumption pressure remains high due to the large supply [7]