1 Reason Duolingo Stock Could Surprise Investors in 2026

Core Insights - Duolingo's stock has declined 28% since the third-quarter earnings report, despite exceeding revenue and subscriber expectations, primarily due to weak fourth-quarter guidance [1][6] - The decline in stock price presents a buying opportunity as the company continues to show strong user retention and subscription revenue growth [2][10] Financial Performance - Duolingo reported a 46% year-over-year increase in subscription revenue, reaching $229 million, indicating high customer satisfaction [5] - Total bookings increased by 33% year-over-year in Q3, but the guidance for Q4 projects a lower growth rate of 21.3% to 23.5% [6] - The company ended the quarter with 135 million monthly active users, a 20% year-over-year increase, and 50 million daily active users, a 36% year-over-year increase [4][10] Market Position - Investors are concerned about competition from ChatGPT and other chatbots, but Duolingo continues to retain users who are increasingly using the app daily [9][10] - The company's strategy focuses on growing user numbers rather than maximizing short-term revenue, which is reflected in the lower guidance [6][10] Valuation - Following the stock's decline, Duolingo's shares are trading at a price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of 26, which is considered attractive given the company's 52% year-over-year growth in trailing-12-month free cash flow [10]