6887亿美元：中国的美债持仓创17年最低！全球债主态度分裂，美债违约风险藏不住了？

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, dropping below $700 billion for the first time in 17 years, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation and risk management [1][3]. Group 1: Current Holdings and Trends - As of October 2025, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by $11.8 billion, bringing the total to $688.7 billion, marking a cumulative decline of over 9% for the year [1][3]. - This reduction is part of a broader trend where major global creditors are divided; Japan has increased its holdings to $1.2 trillion, while Canada has also sold off significant amounts [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Reduction - The credibility of the U.S. government has diminished, highlighted by a historic 43-day government shutdown that affected federal employees and economic stability [9]. - China is optimizing its foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion of U.S. dollar assets from 37% in 2018 to 24% in 2025, while increasing gold reserves to 7.412 million ounces [10]. - Holding U.S. Treasury bonds has become less attractive due to rising volatility in yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently exceeding 5% [11]. Group 3: Implications of the Reduction - In the short term, the reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is a strategic asset allocation adjustment that is unlikely to directly impact wages or deposit rates [14]. - Long-term effects may include a more stable RMB exchange rate and increased emphasis on hard assets like gold, as the central bank continues to accumulate gold reserves [14]. - While the immediate risk of U.S. Treasury default is low, long-term risks are increasing, with warnings from financial experts about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [14][15].