自食其果！美囤铜谋制约，铝价逆势飙涨，中国坐庄，他们急着求饶

Core Viewpoint - The international commodity market in 2025 is experiencing significant volatility, particularly with aluminum prices surging due to increased demand from industries like electric vehicles and AI data centers, while the U.S. faces challenges due to declining aluminum imports and strategic missteps in copper accumulation [1][5][17]. Group 1: Aluminum Price Surge - Aluminum cash prices averaged $2,786 per ton in October and rose to $2,859 per ton in November, marking a new high for the year [3]. - The U.S. imported 303,000 tons of unrefined aluminum in July, the lowest in recent years, with a cumulative import decline of 6.18% from January to July [3][11]. - The surge in aluminum prices is attributed to a demand explosion driven by global industrial upgrades, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where aluminum usage is 42% higher than in traditional vehicles [7]. Group 2: U.S. Strategic Missteps - The U.S. government's strategy to stockpile copper to elevate international copper prices inadvertently led to a surge in aluminum demand, creating a supply crunch [5][17]. - In June 2025, the U.S. raised aluminum import tariffs to 50%, which resulted in a further decline in imports and a vicious cycle of rising prices due to supply shortages [11]. - The U.S. currently has only four operational aluminum smelters with a total capacity of approximately 2.6 million tons, insufficient to meet domestic demand [12]. Group 3: China's Dominance in Aluminum Industry - China produced 41.2 million tons of primary aluminum in the first 11 months of 2025, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while global aluminum consumption reached over 77 million tons, 2.8 times that of copper [5][9]. - China's competitive advantage in the aluminum industry is supported by low electricity costs, with prices as low as 0.2-0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour, significantly reducing production costs compared to the U.S. and Europe [9]. - China's comprehensive control over the aluminum industry is achieved through a full supply chain model, from resource importation to recycling [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The price of alumina futures fell to 2,500 yuan per ton, down from 5,500 yuan a year earlier, while electrolytic aluminum prices continued to rise, indicating a supply-demand mismatch [14]. - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is accelerating, with significant adoption in the air conditioning industry and other sectors, potentially leading to a global aluminum supply shortfall of 292,000 tons by 2026 [15][17]. - The U.S. aluminum inventory was only sufficient for 35 days as of October 2025, forcing manufacturers to hedge risks in the futures market [17].