智昇研究：降息遇获利了结？黄金牛市不改，4400 可期！

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, dropping to around $4310 before recovering to approximately $4327, influenced by profit-taking and bargain buying [1] - The unexpected decline in the US November CPI inflation to 2.7% has strengthened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, limiting the downside for gold prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, below analysts' expectations of a 3.0% increase, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 26.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting in January, following three consecutive 25 basis point cuts [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, as well as developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market dynamics that could impact gold prices [5] - Analysts suggest that if negotiations to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict progress, gold prices may face significant downward pressure in the following week [5] Group 3 - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices forming higher highs and lows, and staying above the key 100-period exponential moving average [6] - The first resistance level for gold is at last week's high of $4353, with a decisive breakout potentially leading to a rise towards historical highs of $4381 and a psychological target of $4400 [6] - Conversely, a bearish candlestick pattern and a drop below the December 17 low of $4300 could give sellers momentum, pushing gold towards the December 16 low of $4271, with the next support level at the Bollinger band midline of $4225 [6]