美国CPI低于预期，失业率攀升！美联储降息箭在弦上？

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, indicated that the CPI report reflects a favorable scenario of high growth and low inflation, suggesting significant room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021 [1] - A report from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, surpassing a historical warning threshold, which typically leads to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within 6-12 months [1] - Industrial research from Industrial Bank supports this view, stating that ongoing employment pressure and declining inflation could prompt the market to anticipate earlier interest rate cuts [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, traders estimated a 28.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in January [1]