美日货币政策分化落地 全球市场利空出尽未现金融风暴

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the United States, with Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% while the US Federal Reserve lowered rates to 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting differing economic conditions and policy goals [1][3] - Japan's interest rate hike aims to escape a 30-year deflationary shadow, with core CPI rising 3.0% in November, marking 51 consecutive months of increase, and a positive cycle of "prices-wages-consumption" beginning to form [3][4] - The US Federal Reserve's rate cut is a response to cooling inflation and economic pressures, with core CPI in November dropping to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, and unemployment rising to 4.4% [3][4] Group 2 - Market concerns about potential global repercussions from Japan's rate hike did not materialize, as the market showed resilience with controlled volatility, evidenced by the Nikkei 225 index only dropping 0.3% and the S&P 500 index rising 0.2% [4][5] - The global yen carry trade, valued at $19.2 trillion, did not trigger a market crash, as investors had already priced in the rate hike, with a 94% expectation of the increase before it occurred [4][5] - The US and Japan's monetary policies are synchronized in a way that avoids overlapping shocks, with the Fed's bond purchases and Japan's market support stabilizing global liquidity [6][9] Group 3 - Emerging markets have shown improved resilience against capital outflows, with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia intervening in foreign exchange markets to stabilize their currencies [8] - The overall market outlook suggests that while the risk of a financial storm has passed, global capital restructuring will continue, indicating a shift in asset pricing and capital flows [9][10] - Analysts expect the "Santa Claus rally" in the S&P 500 to continue, driven by inflation data and corporate earnings, while cautioning about potential volatility in cryptocurrencies and high-leverage derivatives [10]