当海南成为自贸港：新加坡为何开始“选边站”？

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port is undergoing significant institutional changes, with a focus on implementing a "zero tariff" policy that has expanded from 21% to 74% of goods, covering approximately 6,600 tax items, posing a challenge to Singapore's regional hub status [1][3]. Policy Changes - Hainan officially launched its full island closure operation on December 18, marking a strategic shift initiated five years ago with the release of the Hainan Free Trade Port Construction Overall Plan in June 2020 [3]. - The province has expanded its duty-free processing policy from the Yangpu Free Trade Port Area to the entire region, with 129 pilot enterprises approved by October 2025 [3]. - Hainan has introduced a negative list for cross-border data flow management, facilitating unique digital economy cooperation models such as "game exports" [3]. Economic Performance - Hainan's annual average growth rate for goods trade has reached 31.3%, significantly surpassing the national average, while actual foreign investment has grown at an annual rate of 14.6%, also above the national average [5]. - The geographical advantage of Hainan as the nearest maritime exit for Southwest and Northwest China allows for an average time savings of about 10 days compared to routes from Eastern China [6]. Competitive Landscape - Hainan is positioned as the shortest port route from China to Southeast Asia, as well as to Africa, Europe, and Oceania, directly challenging Singapore's traditional hub status [7]. - The competition has expanded into various sectors, including shipping, where the "China Yangpu Port" has registered 73 international vessels with a total capacity of 7.1631 million deadweight tons [8]. Financial Sector Developments - Hainan's multi-functional free trade account policy is being optimized, with innovative measures such as "one line open, two lines managed" and limited cross-border management for same-name accounts [9]. - The annual duty-free shopping limit for Hainan has been raised to 100,000 yuan per person, with total duty-free shopping exceeding 200 billion yuan by the end of August 2025, enhancing its competitiveness in attracting regional consumption [9]. Future Outlook - Post-closure, Hainan is expected to save approximately 20% in tax costs for imported equipment, with customs facilitating the clearance of "zero tariff" and bonded goods, significantly improving efficiency [10]. - Hainan's policies are expected to strengthen its appeal for high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, while Singapore is attempting to solidify its economic influence in Southeast Asia through deeper cooperation with Japan [11]. - Hainan's strategy includes establishing commercial cooperation platforms targeting Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, contrasting with Singapore's "choosing sides" approach [11].