日本央行突然动手！A股这场“万亿暗战”终于藏不住了

Core Viewpoint - The global capital landscape has dramatically shifted due to the actions of the Japanese central bank, which has raised interest rates, impacting the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and leading to significant capital flows into China [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Federal Reserve has been perceived as engaging in "hawkish easing," suggesting potential interest rate cuts while maintaining a tight monetary policy, which has confused market expectations [7][8]. - Despite market anticipation of multiple rate cuts, the Fed's projections indicate only one potential cut by 2026, leading to a misalignment between market sentiment and actual policy [7][8]. Group 2: Japanese Central Bank's Impact - The Japanese central bank's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% marks the end of the negative interest rate era, significantly affecting global capital flows [9][10]. - This shift has caused turmoil among international traders who had borrowed in yen to invest in U.S. assets, leading to a potential sell-off of dollar-denominated assets [10]. Group 3: Capital Flows to China - In November 2025, global equity funds saw a net inflow of $40.5 billion into emerging markets, with approximately $18 billion (44.7%) flowing into the Chinese market, indicating a strong interest from foreign investors [10]. - Foreign capital has been net buying A-shares for four consecutive months, with a single-month net purchase reaching 86 billion yuan, suggesting a growing confidence in the Chinese market [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Foreign investors are employing a "barbell strategy," focusing on high-dividend sectors such as utilities and banks for stability, while also investing in high-growth sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy for potential gains [10]. - The strategy reflects a cautious approach, balancing defensive investments with opportunities in growth sectors that could benefit from future interest rate cuts [10]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the U.S. may maintain a tight monetary policy while Japan could continue to raise rates, leading to a stable yuan exchange rate between 6.9 and 7.2, which could provide a conducive environment for Chinese markets [11]. - The current market dynamics indicate a "structural battle" where investors must be strategic in their asset choices to avoid losses despite rising indices [11].