Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-21 01:13Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is projected to be a turning point for China's economy, moving away from low inflation and establishing a "new equilibrium" as per the consensus among major securities firms [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Growth and Price Recovery - Major securities firms, including China Merchants, Ping An, and West Securities, agree that the Chinese economy will emerge from the low inflation phase, with expectations of nominal GDP growth recovery driven by price factor improvements [1][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit supply, combined with the pig cycle bottoming out and PPI turning positive, which will be key in improving corporate profitability and nominal GDP [1][5][6]. Group 2: Structural Transition and New Growth Drivers - 2026 is seen as a critical juncture for the transition between old and new growth drivers, with real estate investment entering a bottoming phase while AI, data center energy demand, and high-end manufacturing are expected to become substantial growth engines [1][5][21]. - The consensus is that the economy will experience a "new-old relay" with significant changes in investment structures, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [1][21]. Group 3: Demand-Side Drivers - There is a divergence in views regarding demand-side drivers; some firms like Minsheng and Northeast Securities believe external demand will outperform internal demand, while others like West Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan predict a shift towards internal demand dominance [1][5][21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Market Style Predictions - Opinions on asset allocation and market style are highly varied, with Haitong International being the most optimistic, predicting a 40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index based on "value re-evaluation" logic [2][50]. - China Merchants Securities anticipates a shift from "policy-driven" to "profit-driven" market dynamics, while others suggest a more balanced focus on both growth and cyclical opportunities [2][21]. Group 5: Key Predictions from Securities Firms - China Merchants Securities predicts a recovery in corporate profits and a shift in policy focus towards enhancing development quality, with manufacturing investment expected to grow by 5% and real estate investment's decline narrowing to -8% [5][10]. - Ping An Securities emphasizes the importance of price recovery, forecasting CPI to rise to 0.6% and PPI to narrow its decline significantly [16][18]. - West Securities expects nominal GDP growth to accelerate, driven by inflation recovery and the emergence of new growth forces [21][23]. Group 6: External Environment and Trade Dynamics - The external environment is expected to improve, with strong export performance contributing significantly to GDP growth, projected to be around 40%-50% from actual export growth [11][44]. - The report from Northeast Securities highlights that external demand will recover before internal demand, with exports expected to grow by approximately 7% [44][45].