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Core Viewpoint - Russia's economic situation is deteriorating due to the ongoing war, leading to significant budget deficits and a drastic reduction in gold reserves as a means to generate cash [1][3][5][7] Group 1: Economic Impact - Russia's oil and gas tax revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 was only $102 billion, a 22% year-on-year decrease, insufficient to cover military expenses [1][5] - The average price of Urals crude oil fell to $53 per barrel, below the $75 per barrel needed for fiscal balance, with prices even dipping below $40 [5][7] - Economic growth for 2025 is projected at only 1%, significantly lower than pre-war levels, with inflation exceeding 8% [5][7] Group 2: Budget Deficits and Military Spending - The budget deficit for the first 10 months of 2025 reached 4.2 trillion rubles, an increase of 4 trillion rubles compared to the previous year [3] - Military spending for 2025 is projected at 13.5 trillion rubles, accounting for 33% of total expenditures, with total war costs reaching 15.5 trillion rubles [3][7] - Daily military expenditures amount to 45.3 billion rubles, equivalent to the cost of building a medium-sized factory [3] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Sales - The Central Bank of Russia sold 15 tons of gold, reducing its national wealth fund's gold reserves from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons, indicating severe financial strain [1][3] - The remaining gold reserves, valued at approximately $23.4 billion, can only cover 58 days of expenses, highlighting the urgency of the situation [5] - Russia's gold sales are primarily directed towards domestic banks and investment funds to stabilize the financial market [3][5] Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - The ongoing conflict has led to a significant decline in military exports, with a 64% drop in weapon sales since 2022 [3] - The depletion of gold reserves signifies a shrinking economic buffer, with expectations of further gold sales in the coming years [5][7] - The overall economic structure is severely imbalanced, with civilian industries stagnating while military expenditures continue to rise [5][7]