美银Hartnett：市场聚焦美股大涨“迎新”可能性，唯一风险是“市场过于乐观”

Core Viewpoint - The market is positioning for strong economic growth in 2026, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, tax reductions, and tariff cuts, which are anticipated to accelerate corporate earnings growth [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett noted that the bull-bear sentiment indicator has risen to 8.5, signaling a potential "sell" signal for risk assets, indicating that current market sentiment may be overly optimistic [1][13] - Recent data shows a significant inflow of funds into global equities, with a weekly net inflow of $98.2 billion, of which U.S. stocks attracted $77.9 billion, marking the second-largest weekly inflow on record [2][5] - There has been a substantial outflow from cash assets, with investors withdrawing $43.9 billion in a week, the largest outflow since April of this year, reflecting a notable increase in market risk appetite [5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - Hartnett believes that the probability of market gains next year is significantly enhanced by expectations of fiscal and monetary easing, including continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a new round of "QE lite" [1][12] - The report suggests a focus on long positions in zero-coupon bonds, mid-cap stocks, and emerging market equities to capitalize on the downward trend in inflation, rather than simply chasing the current bullish consensus on risk assets [1][6] Group 3: Structural Risks and Market Dynamics - Despite a positive macro outlook, structural risks are beginning to emerge, including high levels of margin debt and sustained high leverage among hedge funds, which could pose challenges [18] - The concentration of investor holdings in AI and technology sectors raises concerns reminiscent of market structures seen in 2000 and 2007, while the cash allocation ratio has dropped to historical lows [18] - Global long-term yields are on the rise, presenting a risk that could lead to increased volatility in the bond market, even if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates [18]