为什么利率这么低，人们反而更爱存钱了？这背后的真相是什么？

Core Insights - Despite declining deposit interest rates, household savings in China have continued to grow, reflecting a cautious approach to wealth management amid economic uncertainty [1][3][5] Group 1: Household Savings Trends - As of the end of Q3 2025, household deposits reached 164.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with new deposits in the first three quarters exceeding 12.73 trillion yuan, accounting for over 56% of the total increase in RMB deposits [1] - From 2022 to 2024, new household deposits approached 50 trillion yuan, surpassing the total from the previous six years (2016-2021) [3] - The average per capita deposit balance reached 130,000 yuan by the end of 2024, with an annual increase of 12,000 yuan, indicating that savings have become the primary strategy for most families to cope with uncertainty [3] Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The proportion of fixed-term deposits has risen significantly, reaching 72.7% by 2024, compared to a historical average of 60% for fixed versus current deposits, indicating a preference for locking funds in long-term deposits despite lower liquidity [3][5] - Deposit interest rates have been declining, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping from 1.65% in 2022 to 0.95% in 2025, and three-year rates falling from 2.6% to 1.25% during the same period [3][5] Group 3: Behavioral and Economic Factors - The increase in savings is attributed to a long-term "scar effect" from the pandemic, leading to reduced consumer spending and a shift towards preventive savings due to concerns over income stability and employment [5] - The narrowing of investment channels has also contributed to the return of funds to banks, as high-yield trust and real estate products have declined, and the real estate market has faced significant adjustments [5] Group 4: Global Comparisons and Lessons - Japan's experience in the 1990s, where savings rates increased despite low or negative interest rates, serves as a reference point, highlighting a shift in public trust towards cash and deposits amid economic uncertainty [6] - The aging population and incomplete social security systems in China are similar to Japan's challenges, further motivating residents to save [6] Group 5: Financial Market Developments - In the latter half of 2025, a noticeable "deposit migration" occurred, with a decrease of 1.34 trillion yuan in household deposits in October, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards stable assets like bank wealth management and insurance products [8] - The scale of the bank wealth management market reached 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, growing by 7.28% since the beginning of the year, with R2-level (medium-low risk) fixed-income products becoming the mainstay [8][9] Group 6: Evolution of Wealth Management - Wealth management companies have become dominant players, with their product scale reaching 29.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.13% of the market, reflecting growing trust in their expertise and product design [9] - The number of accounts holding wealth management products reached 139 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, indicating a shift from a niche choice to a more widespread investment strategy [9]