突发！中国“三连抛”美债持仓创14年新低，6887亿背后是何战略棋局？

Core Viewpoint - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $688.7 billion, marking a 17-year low since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting a strategic shift in response to perceived risks in the US debt market [2] Group 1: Direct Causes of China's Reduction in US Treasury Holdings - The US government shutdown lasting 43 days has undermined market confidence, revealing vulnerabilities in the creditworthiness of US Treasury bonds [3] - The US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments exceeding defense spending, leading to concerns about the sustainability of US debt and potential default risks [3] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US credit rating, transforming US Treasury bonds from "risk-free assets" to "high-risk liabilities," prompting China to reduce its holdings as a precautionary measure [3] Group 2: China's Strategic Adjustments - China is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold holdings to 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2,305 tons), which now constitutes 4.3% of its foreign reserves, aiming to mitigate reliance on the US dollar [4] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is accelerating, with cross-border Renminbi payments rising to 12.7% in the first half of 2025, as countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia adopt Renminbi for energy trade [4] - China is using the reduction of US Treasury holdings as a financial countermeasure against US tariffs and trade policies, with potential impacts on US interest rates and stock market stability [4] Group 3: Global Implications of the US Debt Crisis - The US is trapped in a cycle of increasing debt, with a deficit of $1.97 trillion in the first 11 months of the 2025 fiscal year, leading to a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [5] - Japan has increased its US Treasury holdings to $1.2 trillion, but this is seen as a forced response to US pressure, contrasting with China's strategy of gradual reduction [5] - Central banks globally are reconfiguring their reserve strategies, with emerging economies like China increasing gold and digital currency holdings, challenging the dominance of the US dollar [5] Group 4: Future Trends in China's Financial Strategy - China is implementing a controlled reduction strategy for US Treasury bonds, limiting monthly sales to the billion-dollar range to avoid market shocks while paving the way for Renminbi internationalization [6] - If the current pace of gold accumulation continues, China's gold reserves could exceed 3,000 tons by 2030, further diminishing the dollar's anchoring effect [6] - The expansion of Renminbi cross-border settlement networks is underway, with ASEAN trade using local currency rising to 35%, potentially reducing the dollar's share in global trade below 40% [6]