中美之争落幕？现实比想象残酷：美国不是输了，是牌桌都下不去了

Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The trade disputes between the US and China began in 2018, with tariffs peaking at 145% by 2025, yet China's exports increased despite US efforts to curb them [1] - The US aimed to protect its domestic industries through tariffs, but China's export share rose, indicating that tariffs alone cannot defeat China's economic growth [1] - By 2025, China's semiconductor market share had significantly increased, while US companies like Nvidia struggled to secure export exemptions [3] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - China's electric vehicle exports surged to nearly 5 million units in the first nine months of 2025, making it the global leader in EV exports, with Mexico as the largest market [5] - Despite tariff barriers preventing Chinese EVs from entering the US market, China successfully redirected its exports to other regions, particularly the Middle East and Europe [5] - The increase in China's fuel vehicle exports is attributed to a domestic shift towards new energy vehicles, leading to a rise in second-hand vehicle exports [5] Group 3: Military and Defense Dynamics - By 2025, the US defense budget approached $900 billion, while China's military capabilities continued to improve, narrowing the gap [7] - The Chinese military's nuclear arsenal increased to 600 warheads, and its naval fleet surpassed that of the US, indicating rapid military advancements [7] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has strained US military resources, revealing weaknesses in its defense supply chain and prompting a reevaluation of military strategies against China [7] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry and Technology - The US imposed stricter export controls on advanced chips to China starting in 2022, but China increased domestic R&D support, leading to a gradual rise in chip localization rates [3] - China's control over rare earth exports has impacted the global semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating the limitations of US technology embargoes [3] - By 2025, China's semiconductor exports remained stable, countering US expectations of a collapse in the supply chain [12] Group 5: Overall Strategic Shifts - The US is transitioning from an offensive to a defensive posture in its approach to China, recognizing the need for coexistence rather than outright competition [9] - The US manufacturing hollowing-out issue has become more pronounced, with reliance on foreign materials for military projects, while China leverages its engineering capabilities for rapid innovation [11][12] - The ongoing competition is characterized by a search for stability in supply chains, with both nations learning valuable lessons from their confrontations [12]