时隔一年多，人民币又要升破7了！提振内需，需要靠汇率升值？

Group 1 - The offshore RMB closed at 7.033, with expectations of rising below 7.0 in the coming week, potentially marking the highest exchange rate since October 2024 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is a result of multiple economic factors, reflecting China's strategic elevation in the global economic landscape and the dynamic adjustments in the global monetary system [3] - The current macroeconomic environment presents a strategic window for RMB appreciation, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which has seen the federal funds rate drop from 5.5% to 3.75% [3] Group 2 - The RMB's appreciation has significant strategic value for the Chinese economy, particularly in addressing the challenge of weak domestic demand [5] - Despite external pressures like increased tariffs from the U.S., China's foreign trade remains resilient, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025 [6] - The RMB's appreciation enhances purchasing power, benefiting imports and allowing consumers to access a wider range of imported goods at lower costs, thus stimulating consumption [8] Group 3 - RMB-denominated assets become more attractive to foreign investors due to valuation advantages, leading to increased capital inflows into the stock, real estate, and bond markets [9] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to create significant value reassessment effects in asset markets [10] - While there are concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports, Chinese exporters have demonstrated resilience, achieving year-on-year export growth despite tariff pressures [12] Group 4 - The export structure is undergoing a strategic upgrade, with high-value products like machinery, ships, and new energy vehicles becoming the main export drivers, capable of absorbing cost pressures from RMB appreciation [12] - Traditional labor-intensive products may face challenges, but these pressures can catalyze industry transformation towards high-tech and high-value sectors [14] - Overall, the RMB's appreciation aligns with the internal needs of China's economic transformation, enhancing import capacity, expanding consumption, optimizing asset allocation, and promoting industrial upgrades [14]