广发宏观：展望2026年资产定价所面临的狭义“金融条件”可能会趋于收敛

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that new growth clues may compensate for financial conditions, with potential changes in asset pricing by 2026 due to various factors including the US dollar index, global interest rate conditions, and domestic interest rate changes [1][2][4] - The US mid-term elections may lead to temporary fiscal support for consumer spending, potentially boosting economic growth [2] - A potential easing of geopolitical tensions in Europe could serve as a significant short-term economic growth driver [3] - China's economic recovery efforts, including stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing consumption rates, present substantial growth opportunities [4] Group 2 - Recent macro data reinforces expectations for US interest rate cuts in the coming year, with notable market reactions across stocks, bonds, and currencies [5] - The US stock market shows significant differentiation, particularly among technology stocks, while European markets generally rise and Japanese markets decline following interest rate hikes [6] - Commodity pricing reflects a combination of forward-looking US interest rate expectations and current supply disruptions, with notable strength in silver and copper prices [7][8] Group 3 - The US Treasury yields are generally declining, with a steepening yield curve, while European and Japanese bond markets face selling pressure [9] - The US dollar initially weakened but rebounded, impacting currency trading dynamics, particularly with the Japanese yen [10] - A-shares are experiencing a resurgence in trading speed, with non-tech sectors showing significant performance advantages [12] Group 4 - The cultural, tourism, and health industries in China are experiencing rapid growth, with notable increases in sales revenue across various segments [27][28] - The silver economy is projected to reach approximately 7 trillion yuan by 2024, indicating a growing market for elder care and related services [30]