国金证券：迎接2026，告别单一叙事

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]