能化强势领涨，贵金属与农产品分化｜期货周报

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]