Amazon Stock in 2026: Key Catalysts and What Investors Should Watch

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock performance has been under scrutiny as it faces competitive pressures, regulatory challenges, and macroeconomic headwinds, despite historically outperforming the market [1] Group 1: AI Investments - Amazon is significantly investing in artificial intelligence, with management forecasting $125 billion in capital expenditures for 2023, which includes building data centers and developing chips [3] - Competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet are also heavily investing in AI infrastructure, necessitating Amazon to keep pace to avoid being left behind [4] Group 2: AWS Performance - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a critical component of Amazon's business, contributing $33 billion in revenue and $11.4 billion in operating income in the third quarter [5] - AWS is benefiting from strong customer interest in AI tools, with notable customers like OpenAI and long-term partner Nvidia, which is expected to enhance Amazon's financial results in 2026 [6] Group 3: Digital Advertising Growth - Amazon's digital advertising revenue surged 22% year-over-year to $17.7 billion in the last quarter, positioning the company alongside industry leaders like Alphabet and Meta Platforms [8] - The expectation is that digital advertising revenue will continue to rise significantly unless a severe recession occurs [9] Group 4: Valuation Insights - Despite a market cap of $2.4 trillion, Amazon shares are trading at an enterprise value (EV) of 30.5 times earnings before interest and taxes, close to its lowest ratio in the past decade [10] - Valuation expansion could be a key driver of investor returns in 2026, with improved market sentiment likely following strong financial results [10]