Coinbase(US:COIN) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-21 13:35Core Insights - The report outlines the evolving landscape of token sales, emphasizing a shift towards more structured and compliant mechanisms in 2026, moving away from speculative retail participation towards institutional involvement and quality assets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Token Sale Trends - Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA) are expected to transition from niche to mainstream, with 15-20 significant projects adopting this mechanism, enhancing price discovery through decentralized infrastructure [4]. - The integration of launch platforms with centralized exchanges (CEX) is on the rise, as seen with Kraken's partnership with Legion and Coinbase's acquisition of Echo, indicating a trend towards vertical integration in token sales [7]. - A two-tier system for token sales is anticipated, with A-level sales supported by exchanges and B-level sales on independent platforms, reflecting a shift from first-come-first-served (FCFS) models to capability-based allocations [8][10]. Group 2: Institutional Involvement - Institutional allocations are becoming standardized in token sales, akin to "lightweight IPOs" on-chain, with platforms like Legion positioning themselves as underwriters in the crypto space [8][10]. - The report predicts that compliance will become a competitive barrier, with non-compliant platforms facing quicker delisting risks and reduced institutional demand [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is expected to polarize into two ecosystems: institutional-grade sales with high compliance and community-focused sales with lower funding amounts and shorter lock-up periods [32]. - The emphasis on quality over quantity is highlighted, with a shift towards well-structured token sales that prioritize real user adoption and liquidity depth [23][25]. Group 4: Pricing and Liquidity - Dynamic pricing mechanisms are set to replace fixed fully diluted valuations (FDV), with interest in fair pricing models like Dutch auctions and machine learning-driven demand pricing [25][26]. - Post-issuance liquidity guarantees are becoming industry standards, with projects lacking professional liquidity providers facing challenges in fundraising [29][30]. Group 5: Community Engagement - Community lock-up models are expected to replace immediate unlocks, with around 50% of issuances adopting this approach by the end of 2026, reducing sell-off pressure but potentially leading to "lock-up fatigue" [32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of real user engagement and revenue-generating applications, with a focus on projects that demonstrate clear business models and growth metrics [33][34].