中银证券徐高:政府投资或是2026年经济稳增长的关键抓手

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the need for China to shift its economic growth strategies from investment and export-driven models to innovation and consumption-driven models, addressing structural issues in demand and consumption [1][2][3] - The chief economist of China Merchants Bank, Xu Gao, highlighted that the future economic path for China is likely to oscillate between investment-driven and capacity reduction strategies, with government investment playing a crucial role in stabilizing the economy [1] - Xu Gao predicts that China's GDP growth rate will reach 5% by 2025, with government investment being a key driver for economic stability in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Former Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Liu Shijin, pointed out that the main contradiction in China's economy has shifted from supply constraints to demand constraints, with insufficient consumption being a critical issue [2] - Liu emphasized that China's consumption rate is relatively low compared to global standards and that addressing the structural issues in terminal demand is essential for stimulating consumption and resolving broader economic challenges [2] - Liu identified three advantages for China: potential for catching up, a new technological revolution focused on digital and green technologies, and the benefits of a super-large market economy, which should be aligned with the strategies of becoming a manufacturing, consumption, and financial powerhouse [2]