债主“分道扬镳”：日本持仓创新高，中国减持不止，英国悄然补位

Core Insights - Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have surpassed $1.2 trillion, while China's holdings have decreased to a 17-year low of $688.7 billion, indicating a stark contrast in asset allocation strategies between the two countries [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a slight decline in total foreign holdings of U.S. debt, down by $5.8 billion to $9.24 trillion as of October [1][3] Japan's Position - Japan has increased its U.S. Treasury bond holdings for the tenth consecutive month, adding $10.7 billion in October, reaching a new high since July 2022 [1][3] - Year-to-date, Japan has accumulated an additional $138.5 billion in U.S. debt, representing a 13% increase compared to the end of the previous year [3] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing monetary easing has led to a weaker yen, making U.S. Treasury bonds more attractive due to relatively higher yields [3][4] China's Strategy - In contrast, China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $11.8 billion in October, marking the second consecutive month of reductions following a $0.5 billion decrease in September [3][4] - Since reaching a peak of over $1.3 trillion in 2013, China has been gradually decreasing its U.S. debt holdings, shifting towards a more diversified reserve asset strategy [3][4] Other Countries' Movements - The UK has overtaken China as the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, increasing its holdings by $13.2 billion to $877.9 billion in October [3] - Canada has seen a significant reduction in its U.S. Treasury holdings, decreasing by $56.7 billion to $419.1 billion, marking its third major cut this year [4] - France, Singapore, and Hong Kong have opted to increase their U.S. Treasury holdings, with net purchases of $13.8 billion each [4] Market Context - The U.S. capital market faced unique challenges in October, including a government shutdown that lasted 43 days, the longest in U.S. history [4][5] - During this period, the U.S. experienced a net capital outflow of $3.73 billion, a significant reversal from a net inflow of $18.43 billion in September [5] - Analysts suggest that the government shutdown and rising debt levels may have undermined investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [5]