人民币汇率持续走强，美元存款不降利率，海外资金流向有变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of interest rate changes by central banks and the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that banks must prioritize their balance sheets and risk management over macroeconomic trends [1][10]. Group 1: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar by 3.4% this year, with a near 2% increase over the past six months and close to 1% in the last month, which affects net returns for investors [3]. - The Federal Reserve's policy has shifted since 2014, with expectations of a 75 basis point rate cut by 2025, creating uncertainty that complicates pricing and returns for institutions [3][10]. - Domestic interest rates for RMB deposits are on a downward trajectory, and the Fed's rate cuts may influence the flow of funds, with potential shifts towards high-yield USD products [5]. Group 2: Banking Strategies and Market Behavior - Foreign banks are leveraging high-yield deposit products during the interest rate cut window, supported by holding high-yield bonds, managing quotas, and the relative attractiveness of USD assets [5][10]. - The marketing of high-yield products by banks is seen as a strategy to attract customers while managing risks, with the potential for short-term gains but uncertain long-term sustainability [7][10]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, especially those holding RMB-denominated assets, as high interest rates may be offset by currency depreciation, leading to negligible or negative net returns [7][9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Institutions recommend strategies such as short-duration investments, phased currency exchanges, and using hedging instruments, though these may be complex and costly for average investors [9]. - It is suggested that individuals should diversify their investments, limiting USD asset allocation to 10%-15%, prioritizing short-duration and high liquidity options [10]. - The article concludes with a reminder that both interest rates and exchange rates must be considered together to assess true investment returns, urging caution against being blinded by high rates [12][13].