新加坡躺赚到头了！海南封关刚启动，马六甲中转狂跌115亿

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 marks a significant shift in trade dynamics, transforming previously theoretical policies into tangible profit opportunities for traders [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - "One line open" allows for zero-tariff movement of goods between Hainan and foreign countries, while "two lines manage" establishes a control line between Hainan and mainland China to prevent tax-free goods from flooding the domestic market [3] - The policy of "processing value-added over 30% exempt from tariffs" enables foreign raw materials to enter Hainan, be processed, and then sold to mainland China without import duties, significantly impacting traditional transshipment trade models [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The direct shipping volume from Yangpu Port to Indonesia surged by 78% in the first ten months of 2025, while Singapore's transshipment volume to Indonesia dropped by 23% [4] - Major companies like the Golden Agri-Resources Group are establishing factories in Yangpu, saving up to $120 million annually in transshipment costs [4] - The cost advantages in Yangpu include a 8%-15% lower price for bonded fuel compared to Singapore, and a maximum corporate and personal income tax rate of 15%, lower than Singapore's 17% [4] Group 3: Shipping and Trade Dynamics - The volume of bonded fuel at Yangpu Port increased by 210% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with 30% of clients coming from ships registered in Singapore [6] - The number of container ships passing through the Malacca Strait from China decreased by nearly 40% in the first half of 2025, leading to a 30% drop in Singapore's port container throughput [6] Group 4: Broader Economic Shifts - The energy supply and financial services sectors in Singapore are facing challenges as China's energy transport routes diversify, reducing reliance on Singapore [8][10] - The transformation of Hainan is creating new job opportunities, attracting talent from various regions, while also leading to rising costs and pressures in local businesses [10] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Hainan and Singapore is characterized by differentiated positioning, with Singapore maintaining its reputation in high-end services while Hainan focuses on processing and trade linked to the vast Chinese market [12] - The global trade landscape is shifting from a "sugar stick model" to a "spider web model," reducing dependency on Singapore for trade between China and ASEAN countries [13]