日本加息应对通胀，核心CPI连续44个月超2%

Group 1: Reasons for Japan's Rate Hike - Japan's core CPI has exceeded the 2% target for 44 consecutive months, reaching 3% in November, with food prices, such as rice, surging by 37% [4][2] - The average wage increase in the 2025 "Shuntō" negotiations is projected to be between 5.37% and 5.46%, led by major companies like Toyota, creating a wage-price spiral [4][2] - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates is seen as a necessary step towards normalizing monetary policy, with a target rate of 1%-2.5% [4][2] Group 2: Global Market Impact - The long-standing low interest rates in Japan have led to approximately $1.5 trillion in "yen carry trades," which may see some funds returning to Japan, potentially causing sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries and emerging market assets [6][5] - The market had already priced in the rate hike, with no significant panic observed; for instance, over 4,700 stocks in the A-share market rose on the day of the rate increase [6][7] - The Nikkei index rose by 1.16% following the rate hike, indicating a positive response from the stock market [7] Group 3: Impact on China - The A-share market demonstrated resilience, with capital controls mitigating the impact of the rate hike; previous rate hikes in Japan led to rebounds in A-shares [8] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.032, offsetting some external disturbances [9] - Chinese export sectors, particularly those exporting to Japan (e.g., machinery, textiles, new energy vehicles), may benefit from the yen's appreciation, enhancing their price competitiveness [10] Group 4: Direct Effects on Consumers - The cost of traveling to Japan and purchasing goods online has increased due to the yen's appreciation, with the exchange rate changing from 1,000 yen for 480 RMB to 500 RMB [12] - For students studying in Japan, tuition fees converted to RMB have decreased, but living costs have risen, particularly for those with floating-rate mortgages, which may see monthly payments increase by 1,500 yen [12]