中信证券：超长债仍具配置价值，建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机会

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are primarily attributed to pressure on the liability side of commercial banks, influenced by regulatory assessments and seasonal factors, while the central bank's monetary policy framework reform may gradually offset these pressures through the introduction of balance sheet expansion tools [1] Group 1 - The volatility in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds has increased, mainly due to pressures on commercial banks' liabilities [1] - Regulatory assessments and seasonal factors contribute to the current pressures faced by banks [1] - The central bank's ongoing monetary policy framework reform may provide a counterbalance to these pressures through the deployment of balance sheet expansion tools [1] Group 2 - Fiscal pressures for the next year are considered relatively manageable [1] - In a broader context of monetary easing, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions still pending, ultra-long-term bonds retain certain investment significance [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to investment opportunities following short-term interest rate adjustments [1]