Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the pending acquisition of Qinbin Expressway, the company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 739 million and 770 million yuan respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.5 and 9.0 for those years [1] - The target price for 2025 is set at 5.13 HKD, reflecting a dividend yield of 5.5%, with an 18.2% increase in target price, indicating a potential upside of 12.2% from current stock prices [1] Group 2 - The company announced the acquisition of 85% equity in Qinbin Expressway for a transaction price of 1.15 billion yuan [2] - The valuation of the acquired segment is considered reasonable, with a static P/E of 5.0x, and projected P/E ratios of 12.6x and 11.4x for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating strong internal return rates [3] - The acquisition is expected to extend the average remaining operational life of the company's toll roads by 0.8 years, contributing positively to sustainable development [3] Group 3 - The acquired segment is projected to generate 750 million yuan in revenue for 2024, accounting for 19.5% of the company's total revenue, with significant contributions to net profit in the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The expected toll revenue for the acquired segment in 2026 is forecasted to decline by 33.2% due to maintenance and construction activities, but net profit is anticipated to increase by 10.5% [5] - From 2026 to 2028, the CAGR for revenue, EBIT, and net profit of the acquired company is expected to reach 7.3%, 11.9%, and 25.5% respectively, benefiting from reduced debt and financial costs [5]
中金：维持越秀交通基建(01052)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至5.13港元