苹果摇钱树再被砍，多米诺骨牌要倒下了？

Core Viewpoint - Apple is compelled to open its ecosystem in Japan by allowing third-party app stores and external payment channels, marking a significant shift in its control over app distribution and payment systems, similar to the pressures faced in the EU [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of New Regulations - The new Mobile Software Competition Law in Japan requires Apple to permit developers to use third-party app stores and payment methods, which is a major loss of control for Apple since the launch of its App Store in 2008 [5]. - This regulatory change is expected to significantly affect Apple's service revenue, which has already surpassed 25% of total revenue, with projections indicating it could exceed $100 billion this year [4][5]. - The service business, with a gross margin of 75%, is crucial for Apple's profitability, and the potential loss of control over app distribution could threaten this revenue stream [4]. Group 2: Comparison with EU Regulations - Japan's regulatory approach is influenced by the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which has already forced Apple to reduce its commission rates and allow third-party payment options [6][8]. - Under the DMA, Apple has been required to lower its commission from 30% to as low as 10% for small businesses, indicating a trend towards reduced fees globally [8][9]. - The Japanese regulations are seen as a more detailed and potentially less burdensome framework compared to the EU's, with a minimum commission of 5% for third-party app stores [9]. Group 3: Legal and Competitive Challenges - Apple faces ongoing legal challenges in the U.S., including a significant lawsuit from Epic Games, which has resulted in court rulings that could further undermine Apple's commission structure [15][18]. - The U.S. Department of Justice is also pursuing antitrust litigation against Apple, which could lead to similar regulatory pressures as seen in Japan and the EU [19]. - The cumulative effect of these legal and regulatory challenges could lead to a global standard that diminishes Apple's control over its ecosystem, potentially impacting its market position and revenue [20].