中信证券首席经济学家明明：明年长债利率有望阶段性下行

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 presents both opportunities and challenges, with China showing resilience under policy support as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 as "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and emphasizes the need for sustainable consumption growth [1] - The strategies of strengthening "internal circulation" and promoting "high-level opening up" need to be coordinated effectively for economic recovery and transformation [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities' chief economist Mingming anticipates a potential phase of decline in long-term bond rates next year, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy from the People's Bank of China [3] - The central economic work conference has highlighted the need for more proactive macro policies, including continued implementation of active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3] - The focus of monetary policy is expected to shift from total easing to structural optimization, with an emphasis on guiding funds to key areas of the real economy [3] Group 3 - In response to fiscal efforts, the supply of interest rate bonds has increased this year, and the long-term bond rate is expected to experience a phase of decline next year despite the ongoing "asset shortage" [4] - Factors such as the pace of economic recovery, inflation expectations, and monetary policy direction will jointly determine the long-term interest rate trends [4] - Short-term disturbances in the bond market include better performance in equity markets and rising inflation expectations, but the central bank's supportive monetary policy may lead to a temporary decline in long-term bond rates [4]